MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for March 30

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters. They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments. Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care? Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others.

If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS. Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jack Suwinski (£2,300): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates The Pittsburgh Pirates spent years cultivating MLB-caliber talent, and they get to reap the rewards of their efforts with an exciting, young nucleus in 2023. Among those players is Jack Suwinski, who showed flashes of brilliance in 326 at-bats last season.

Still, the youngster heads into Opening Day with an undervalued £2,300 salary. Using a blended approach, Suwinski ranks as the top bargain against the Cincinnati Reds. The former 15th-round pick put together an above-average .709 on-base plus slugging percentage in his rookie campaign.

Most of the damage came against righties, as the left-handed batting Suwinski delivered 54 of his 66 hits, 14 of his 19 home runs, and all four stolen bags against right-handers. That’s bad news for Hunter Greene, who gave up 1.8 home runs per nine innings with a 4.70 earned run average at home last year.

Joey Gallo (£3,100): First Baseman/Outfielder, Minnesota Twins Joey Gallo is an all-or-nothing kind of batter, and based on our projections, we’re anticipating more of the former against the Kansas City Royals.

The two-time All-Star had a resurgent .393 slugging percentage with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year, overcoming a slight drop in his batting average. We’re expecting more of the same as he remains insulating in a loaded Minnesota Twins lineup. Like Suwinski, the left-handed batting Gallo eats up righties.

Gallo has put together an impressive .473 slugging percentage throughout his career, with over half of his 330 hits going for extra bases. Those metrics could be perpetuated against Zack Greinke, who has seen a steady rise in his walks and hits per inning pitched over his past four seasons. Moreover, Greinke was lit up in Spring Training, giving up a 7.02 earned run average with two home runs in 16.2 innings pitched.

Gallo feasts on ineffective righties, and Greinke will be serving them up for the Twins.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Jacob deGrom (£9,600 DraftKings, £10,800 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

According to the blended FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections, no other pitcher has more upside than Jacob deGrom. The newly-minted Texas Rangers ace has been a steady fantasy producer for the past few years. Now, the two-time Cy Young winner gets to hone his craft in the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Park. deGrom made the most of his limited innings in the Cactus League, striking out ten in 6.2 innings while allowing just four hits and two walks.

Given his consistency since arriving in the bigs, it’s not surprising to see deGrom in his usual dominant form. The hard-throwing righty ended last year in the 98th percentile in expected earned run average, 99th percentile in fastball velocity, and 100th percentile in strikeout percentage. His fastball-slider combination is virtually unhittable, as he’s induced a .208 expected batting average throughout his career.

However, three of his four pitches have a 42.9% whiff percentage or higher. For years, deGrom has been one of the top pitchers in the league. We’re expecting that to continue Thursday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. (£5,700 DraftKings, £3,900 FanDuel) vs.

Washington Nationals It’s not a good look when Patrick Corbin and his 6.31 earned run average from last year is your staff ace, but that’s the position the Washington Nationals find themselves in to start the campaign. Corbin set the high mark in earned runs and losses in each of the past two seasons, a laughable standard Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves will benefit from on Opening Day.

Acuna Jr. is coming off the worst campaign of his career. Still, the former Rookie of the Year recorded a respectable .413 slugging percentage, with 29 stolen bases and 71 runs scored. Additionally, all of Acuna Jr’s underlying metrics remain intact, implying he’s an ideal progression candidate this year.

He remains in the top 10% in expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, setting him up for success against a southpaw on Thursday. Opening Day offers a glimpse of what to expect from Acuna Jr. throughout the campaign.

More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace. A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.

With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models. For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.

Pitcher

Shane McClanahan (£7,700 DraftKings, £10,400 FanDuel) vs.

Detroit Tigers Year after year, the Tampa Bay Rays continue to get the most out of their pitching. We saw how effective Shane McClanahan was last year, and we should see him elevate his performance in his third year in the bigs.

That starts with Thursday’s effort against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have no bite in their lineup, ending last season with the 10th-most strikeouts and second-worst on-base plus slugging percentage. That’s a good starting point for McClanahan, who compiled a 12-8 record with a 2.54 earned run average and 0.93 walks and hits per inning pitched.

His advanced analytics are even more impressive, as the 25-year-old finished in the 80th percentile or better in nearly every category. McClanahan’s efforts are punctuated by his whiff percentage and weighted on-base average, which ranked in the top 6% and 8% of all MLB pitchers. McClanahan should be in the Cy Young conversation again this year, and you will find him near the top of our projections every time he’s toeing the rubber.

Hitters

Byron Buxton (£5,800 DraftKings, £3,500 FanDuel) vs.

Kansas City Royals For many of the same reasons as Gallo, Byron Buxton is worth including on DFS rosters on Thursday. Buxton gets an ideal matchup against a floundering pitcher, but the Twins’ centerfielder has even more pronounced analytics working in his favor.

Perennially, Buxton is included in the MVP conversation, and nearly just as often, injuries derail his bid. However, we saw Buxton appear more frequently last year, playing in 92 games, the most we’ve seen since 2017. Over that stretch, the former second-overall selection put together a 50.2% hard-hit percentage and .509 expected slugging percentage, ranking in the 93rd percentile or better in both categories.

Greinke has been doing this a long time, and he didn’t respond well to the pitching clock changes in Spring Training. Buxton will add to the woes as he reaches his fantasy ceiling against the Royals.

Aaron Judge (£6,300 DraftKings, £4,400 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants

On Thursday, Aaron Judge gets to begin the defense of his AL MVP crown. The New York Yankees outfielder had a breakout campaign in 2022 and should pick up where he left off against Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants. Judge did it all last year, setting new benchmarks in every fantasy-producing category. The three-time Silver Slugger set the AL record for home runs while leading the league in on-base plus slugging percentage runs batted in, and runs scored.

Credit where credit is due, Webb had a banner year in 2022. But the young right-hander succeeded despite his underlying metrics, not because of them. He ended the year ranking in the bottom half of pitchers in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, whiff, and strikeout percentages.

Webb relies on three pitches, none of which will keep Judge or his teammates off guard.

Judge carries a hefty salary, but he’s worth every penny.

Don’t overlook his value to either platform or any format.