NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Mar. 31): Is it Time to Buy Karl …
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a £100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Almost every team in the league is in action on Friday, so there are plenty of options to choose from. We also have plenty of value available as we near the end of the season, and more will likely become available as we get closer to lock.
With that in mind, it might seem odd to call Spencer Dinwiddie a stud point guard. He’s priced outside the top 10 at the position across the industry, but he owns the sixth-highest projection at point guard in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination.
He’s put together some big games since returning to Brooklyn, including 46.0 DraftKings points Wednesday vs. the Rockets. He played 38.5 minutes in that contest, and with the Nets trying to hold on to the final guaranteed spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, expect him to carry another massive workload on Friday. Dinwiddie also draws an elite matchup vs. the Hawks.
They rank fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, so Dinwiddie has more upside than usual.
Value
There isn’t a true “value” option available at the position – at least at the moment – but Killian Hayes stands out as a strong target on FanDuel. He’s priced at just £6,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he’s been a steady contributor for the shorthanded Pistons of late. He’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models.
That alone is enough to warrant consideration, but Hayes also draws an elite matchup vs. the Rockets. They’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Ja Morant enters the stud conversation on FanDuel, where he’s priced at a discount at £9,900. He returned to his usual workload in his last contest, racking up 35.3 minutes in a loss vs. the Clippers.
If Morant is going to play that much moving forward, he’s a steal at less than £10,000. His average of 1.46 FanDuel points per minute for the year is the top mark among Friday’s point guards, and he’s increased that figure to 1.57 over the past month. Bruce Brown has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings, including at least 32.5 DraftKings points in two straight.
Brown has always been a capable fantasy producer when given the chance to play consistent minutes, and he’s projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s way too cheap at £4,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder are going to be an important team to monitor on Friday. It was initially reported that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would miss his third straight game, but he has since been upgraded to questionable.
If SGA does remain out of the lineup, Josh Giddey becomes one of the best plays of the day on FanDuel. Giddey has been absolutely balling of late, averaging 1.25 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 46.2 FanDuel points in three of them.
Giddey also draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Pacers. They rank fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Thunder are implied for a very healthy 120.5 points. Giddey’s £8,000 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, while his 12 Pro Trends rank third at the position.
If SGA is ruled out, fire him up with confidence.
Value
The Warriors are currently listed as massive 18-point favorites vs. the Spurs in a game with a 242.0-point total. Those are big-boy numbers, resulting in a ridiculous 130.0-point implied team total. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen an implied team total of 130 points, but it goes without saying that the Warriors have massive upside in this environment.
Jordan Poole stands out as one of their best options. He’s turned in three straight quality performances, finishing with 34.75, 39.0, and 43.75 DraftKings points. Poole has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he ranks second at the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.38 on DraftKings.
Poole also stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his £6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. This game obviously has massive blowout potential, but Poole should do significant damage when he’s on the floor.
Fast Break
There’s tanking, and then there’s whatever it is that the Blazers are doing right now. They’re expected to sit basically everyone with a pulse on Friday, with Shaedon Sharpe being the lone exception.
The talented 19-year-old played nearly 45 minutes in their last contest and responded with 48.9 FanDuel points, despite shooting just 10-27 from the field. He remains underpriced at £7,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. If you’re looking for a cheaper option, it’s hard to ignore Corey Kispert.
He’s playing all the minutes he can handle for the shorthanded Wizards, and he’s projected for another 34 minutes on Friday. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.91 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Small forward is one of the weaker positions at the top of the pricing spectrum, but Jaylen Brown always has some tournament appeal on FanDuel.
He’s projected for less than three percent ownership, and he has been underpriced for virtually the entire season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.53 on FanDuel for the year, and he’s increased his production to 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. There’s always a chance that Brown could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, but they’re chasing the Bucks for the No.
1 seed in the East. As long as he’s active, he should be able to find success against a Jazz squad that struggles defensively.
Value
Nassir Little is another member of the Blazers who should play all the minutes he can handle on Friday. He saw just under 40 minutes in their last contest, but he struggled to a dismal 11.4 FanDuel points.
Still, Little has averaged 0.70 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he should be able to improve moving forward. He’s massively underpriced at £4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Kevin Knox seems like the preferred Blazers’ target at small forward on DraftKings. He also played just under 40 minutes in their last game, and while he’s not expected to see quite as many minutes on Friday, he’s averaged a solid 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s also -£600 cheaper than little on DraftKings, giving him the edge in projected Plus/Minus. Jalen Williams is another player who would deserve heavy consideration on FanDuel if SGA is ruled out. He’s turned in a phenomenal rookie season, and he’s taken his game to another level recently.
He’s increased his production to 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 40.0 FanDuel points in three straight games. Like Giddey, he also stands out as underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns‘ minutes continue to trend upward, and he’s coming off 33.6 minutes in his last outing. He’s expected to take another small step forward vs. the Lakers in what is undoubtedly a better matchup.
They rank tied for fifth in pace, and the Timberwolves rank eighth in that department. The result is a 232.5-point total, which is the fifth-highest on the slate. Towns has had a subpar fantasy season even when he has been available, but his average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute is still outstanding.
It puts him in the same boat as Kawhi Leonard, who is nearly £2,000 more expensive. Ultimately, if Towns continues to see around 34 minutes, he’s going to provide massive value at his current price tag sooner rather than later.
Value
Sandro Mamukelashvili has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, where he’s underpriced at £5,300. Sandro has seen a nice spike in playing time for the tanking Spurs of late, and he’s coming off 28.7 minutes in his last outing.
He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his playing time should be secure regardless of the game script.
Fast Break
Trendon Watford is questionable for the Blazers, and while I think it’s unlikely he suits up, he would become one of the best values of the day if he does. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Kings results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.84. He currently leads all power forwards in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Warriors have won four of their past five games, and Draymond Green has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in all four wins. It seems like a near certainty that the team will pick up another win on Friday, and when the team does well, Draymond typically does well. He derives most of his fantasy value from peripherals, and there should be plenty of opportunities for rebounds and assists vs. the Spurs.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
For a 13-game slate, it has the potential to be really light on star power. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic are both off, while Nikola Jokic is questionable.
If Jokic is unable to go, Joel Embiid would become the top stud by default. Of course, Embiid has also been fantastic of late, averaging 1.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark on the slate, slightly beating out Jokic’s mark of 1.70.
Embiid draws a tough matchup vs. the Raptors, but that could actually work in his favor for tournaments. He’s projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings, even though his £11,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. If more value opens up throughout the day, Embiid is worthy of anchoring your lineups.
Value
Kevon Looney might not be the most exciting DFS option, but he typically gets the job done.
He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.78 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s racked up 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Spurs and an 89% Bargain Rating, and Looney is a strong option if paying down at the position.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is currently questionable for the Pacers, and if he’s able to suit up, he provides plenty of upside at his current price tag across the industry. Turner has always had a massive ceiling, and that’s particularly true with Tyrese Haliburton and Chris Duarte sidelined.
Even with just 28 projected minutes in our NBA Models, Turner grades out with the top projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel. Nic Claxton has had a wonderful year for the Nets, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 12 games on FanDuel. He’s in a great spot to keep that production going Friday vs. the Hawks.
They rank 29th in points in the paint allowed per game and 17th in team rebound rate, so they’ve unsurprisingly struggled against centers for most of the year.
