These ASX 200 shares just plunged. Which one's the bargain?

Two darlings of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) have plummeted in the past month. Is it time to go bargain shopping? That’s the question posed to Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish about Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC) and IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL).

The stocks, which have been in favour with many professional investors in recent times, have fallen 3.7% and 6.1% respectively over the last month. According to Gerrish, the instability in the global banking sector over the past fortnight has caused “some panic across financial markets”. “Indeed [this has] led to some increased volatility on both the stock and sector level,” he said in a Market Matters Q&A.

So are either of these a “buy the dip” candidate?

Elective surgery or international students?

Many experts have pointed out the continuing post-pandemic recovery in elective surgery as a tailwind for private hospital operator Ramsay Health. Wilsons equity strategist Rob Crookston last week rated the stock as one of his top “defensive growth” buys. “Wilsons healthcare analysts forecast an earnings per share CAGR of 36% (versus consensus of 26%) between FY23E and FY25E, driven by a recovery in surgeries, strong underlying utilisation trends, raised prices for payers, dwindling COVID costs, and continued brownfield activity.”

As such, Gerrish thinks Ramsay is certainly a buy-the-dip temptation. “We like Ramsay Health into recent weakness around the £63 to £64 area,” he said. “It’s not on our hitlist yet, but at current levels it’s certainly being watched carefully.”

International student services provider IDP Education showed mixed fortunes during last month’s reporting season, according to Gerrish. “At their February results they reported an overall beat in terms of earnings due to higher fees being earnt,” he said. “However, there was obvious softness in IELTS [English testing] volumes… due mainly to visa backlogs.”

In the long run, the problem will correct itself. “But the timing is unknown. As with all things in government, [it] seems to take longer than expected,” said Gerrish.

“We suspect that’s the underlying reason for [share price] weakness.”

So ultimately, which of the two would he buy during the current dip?

“We prefer Ramsay Health over IDP Education at this point.”

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